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A regular Commodities spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Commodities spread trading update, click here.
Commodities Spread Betting, 29 Feb 08
Gold hit a new high (yawn) as did Oil, Coffee, Silver etc etc etc...the hunt for secure delivery seems to be hotting up. At some point the elastic band will probably hit a critical point and the whole edifice will snap back but trying to call the top is a mugs game. So unless you are long already, sitting on the sidelines would seem like a sensible thing to do.
Commodities Spread Betting, 28 Feb 08
The commodities markets have paused for breathe this morning (as the dollar regains some composure) but the pressure is still there and it remains a brave trader who bets on any significant fall back in prices. Gold had a few attempts at falling below $952 yesterday, all of which failed, so short term punters may be watching to see if we break below here.
Crude Oil has given up on the $100 level rather easily and it appears that the $99.50 level is rather more significant from a support/resistance level. It took quite a few goes to break above this level and we have bounced quite violently off it once already (yesterday afternoon). Dealers have now taken us down to it once more in a late fall out last night. That means traders will be watching for further buying (or the lack of it) early today.
The current crude oil spread of $99.53 - $99.59 for the Nymex April contract puts us in an interesting starting point for today’s action.
Commodities Spread Betting, 27 Feb 08
With the dollar weakening significantly and most commodities priced in USD, commodities had yet another reason to rally.
Gold started yesterday on the soft side falling to $926 before the dollar impact started to be felt. The Gold spread is now $957.0 - 957.5 (a new all time high). In reality, the recent fall in the dollar means that from a basket currency basis, it is little changed over the past week.
Silver on the other hand has gone into overdrive and has moved some $2 higher in the last week with the Silver spread this morning at $19.30 - $19.33. That’s a rally of almost 15%, in gold this would be the equivalent of a move of over $130.
The Capital Spreads clients have stuck to their long commodity positions and are being heavily rewarded. The bulls are in control across the board and it would not be a wise man who stands in the way of the train.
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Commodities Spread Betting, 26 Feb 08
The Gold market is experiencing a bit of profit taking as it rejects the $950 level. With clients still long of the precious metal it's unlikely to be long before they'll be buying more of the yellow stuff as that's what they've been doing every time the price dips. With $70 to go before the $1,000 mark, it's only a mere 7.5% away from what looks like destiny.
Commodities Spread Betting, 25 Feb 08
Gold is being squeezed higher again in Far East action as shorts begin to get squeezed once more. The dollar weakness in the fag end of last week came as something of a blow to the precious metal short sellers. The Capital Spreads account holders have yet again made the right moves by remaining long of the gold market. $950 beckons and $1,000 is still the target for many.
Commodities Spread Betting, 22 Feb 08
With the price of Crude Oil rejecting the $100 level yesterday the question will be asked as to whether the 20th Feb 2008 will become the one day in history that the price of crude managed to close in three figures or will the never ending requirement to secure supply push us ever higher. The Gold and Platinum markets squeezed again and the yellow metal has finally hit $950. $1,000 must be in its sights now and the magnetism of the number may well be enough, on its own, to pull us up.
With so much of our commodity requirements coming from, shall we say, the not always friendly, parts of the globe the fear over flow disruption is unlikely to fade. Our main Crude Oil supplies come from places such as Russia, Nigeria and the Middle East, countries which have very little inclination to be particularly amenable with the Western economies. The Far East has always been more accommodating towards the little foibles of the commodity rich nations and in an era of reduced availability the historical friction with the West may well work against us.
Since the late Nineteenth to Mid-Twentieth century when the UK and France exited most of their Empires the torch bearer for western values has generally been the US. Their heavy handed diplomacy over the last decade or so may well come to haunt us all in the coming years.
Commodities Spread Betting, 21 Feb 08
I mentioned that the commodities markets went Bananas on Tuesday. Yesterday they went one better. Gold managed to fall $20 by the US opening only for the Yanks to reverse the whole move, and more, pushing us up $35 to the current (new highs). The gold spread is now at $945.0 - 945.5.
Crude Oil is back up to the $100 level as OPEC removes the possibility of new production increases…and it looks like the Oil inspired inflation effect will continue to filter through into other commodity units.
Commodities Spread Betting, 20 Feb 08
As discussed in today's "High Commodities Prices" Feature, the Commodities went for broke yesterday. Gold went for the resistance levels of $915 and $926 mentioned yesterday and defeated them. The $926 level now turns into support and we are sitting bang on it in early trade with the gold spread at $926.5 - $927.0. To be honest I could go through virtually every commodity and say ‘new highs’ ‘broke resistance’, ‘continued strength’ etc. etc. The markets remain very, very volatile and are not a place for the faint hearted.
Commodities Spread Betting, 19 Feb 08
Gold has bounced from $900 mark as the dollar weakens slightly overnight and the Financial Spreads clients are back on the buying side once more. Resistance remains at $915 and $926 but current activity seems very two-way. Without some poor news elsewhere dealers are likely to try to trade the ranges.
Commodities Spread Betting, 18 Feb 08
Gold remains supported at $885, $895 and $900 and resisted at $915, $925 and $935. Early action this morning took us up to around the $906 level but selling in Europe has now pushed us back to the closing levels of Friday with the gold spread betting markets at $902.5 - $903.0. With the dollar remaining reasonably solid the pressure for the next move higher will have to come from some other sector at the moment.
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